At the pace things are going, power may return to the North in 2031. But nobody will have themselves to blame but the Igbo. Undoubtedly, it is apparently clear that the Igbo are desperately gunning for Nigeria’s presidency, especially looking at the pattern of voting in the last presidential elections in 2023 as well as the attendant eventualities that accompanied it, which tempo is sustained till today.

One truth that the Igbo need to realize is that at any point in time, Nigeria is never in want of suitable presidential materials. We may not get them to occupy Aso Rock, but the truth is that they are never in short supply. Hence, the office of the president and commander-in-chief of Nigeria can be occupied at anytime by anyone that is destined and positioned to be there. Previous roll-calls of Nigeria’s presidents attests to this.

Beginning with President Shehu Shagari, who wanted to, and openly said that, as for him, he wanted to go to the Senate, but the presidency was foisted on him by the Northern oligarchy. Obasanjo was languishing in prison and awaiting the hangman’s noose when suddenly, he was seen as the only solution to the impasse in the country at that time and hurriedly released and made president by this same Northern mafia, to appease the Yorubas of the Southwest whose son Chief MKO Abiola was denied the presidency even though he won the presidential elections of June 12, 1993.

Obasanjo decided, after his 8-year rule, to return power to the North as a demonstration of the good gesture of the North in making him president for 8 years. He did not see anything good in his vice, Abubakar Atiku, otherwise, it would have been an easy and seamless transition of power from Obasanjo, a southerner, to his vice, Atiku, a Northerner. But still, in the spirit of “born to rule” mantra of the North, Obasanjo cautiously looked for another Northerner to take the slot. Hence he settled for Umaru Shehu YarAdua, then governor of Katsina State, and junior brother of late General Musa YarAdua, with whom Obasanjo was jailed by military dictator, General Sanni Abacha over accusations of planning a phantom coup, thereby guilty of treason.

Apparently, Obasanjo’s decision must have been fueled by 2 notions, firstly, to satisfy the North and secondly to compensate the YarAdua Family for the cruel murder of their son, General Musa YarAdua via poisoned injection while in military custody. Obasanjo himself escaped by whiskers according to his testimonies, years after. Obasanjo’s choice for the presidency, Umaru Yar’Adua, ailing and sickly, died in office, a few months after Obasanjo installed him president and commander in chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Thereafter arose the problem of Umaru YarAdua’s replacement.

Again, the Northern oligarchy sprang into action as usual, vehemently opposing the constitutional emergence of President Umaru YarAdua’s vice, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, an Ijaw from the Southsouth, considered as a minority tribe. But as destiny would have it, despite the shenanigans of the Northern oligarchy, but with the help of the southwest intelligentsia, Obasanjo, civil rights groups, political activists, other conscience groups and notable individuals, clergy, the Northern oligarchy was compelled to succumb to obeying the constitution and enthrone Goodluck Ebelle Jonathan as Late Umaru YarAdua’s successor after a serious national political upheaval that almost divided the country because the North, a predominantly Muslim enclave was not averse to a Muslim presidency. But unfortunately for them, God had made up His mind to install ‘Goodluck’ Ebelle Jonathan by then. So exactly it happened. And Jonathan became the first leader of Nigeria to come from a minority tribe, the Ijaw.

Throughout Jonathan’s reign, there was never a time of peace or respite as the North moved to make Nigeria ungovernable for him. And they did. The Northern Mafia imported fighters from the Sahel areas of North Africa who entered Nigeria in droves. Primarily their mission was to make governing Nigeria difficult for Jonathan and his returning to power for a second term impossible, especially in a contest against Mohammadu Buhari, a man that commanded a cultist followership in the North.
“Sai Baba” as he was popularly called, the North stood solidly behind him and he declared that if he did not win the contest against Jonathan, “the dogs and the baboons will be soaked in their own blood. Of course, Jonathan understood the message and he responded by declaring that his own presidential ambition was “not worth the blood of any Nigerian”

Fortunately the mercenary fighters from the Sahel did not have to fight and shed blood to give electoral victory to Buhari, for he won the election at first ballot. And Jonathan, an urbane, cerebral gentleman , well read and learned, a PhD holder in philosophy saved Nigeria from chaos, arson and bloodshed by conceding defeat (without litigation) to Buhari in a telephone call even before the conclusion of balloting. Hence, power returned to the North again. Buhari, a former Army General, whose track records in the military encouraged Nigerians to look forward with hope in his presidency especially because he was noted for having zero-tolerance for corruption. He quoted as saying “if Nigeria does not kill corruption, corruption will kill Nigeria”

In all honesty, Buhari had very good intentions for Nigeria, but a tree cannot make a forest, so says an adage. Buhari forgot that he was a lone voice in the wilderness of a thoroughly corrupt people who would be contented with having only 2 houses, one in Daura, his hometown and the other, in Kaduna, both modest bungalows. He could not divide himself and become omnipresent to monitor the people’s corrupt ways. That aside, age was fast taking its toll on Sai Baba who could not use his military swagger stick to deal with corrupt civilians in a fledgling democracy. Hence Buhari soon lost his bite and corruption festered even more than before. More seriously was that these mercenary fighters imported from the Sahel to help him wrest power from Jonathan became “jobless” and had no reason to fight anymore, since Jonathan had conceded defeat. And roaming around, they metamorphosed into bandits, kidnappers and terrorists. Making lots of money in ransom, they soon gathered caches of weapons arms and more ammunitions especially with the connivance of unscrupulous power-mongering politicians who find them useful to retain power. Of late is illegal miners who use them to sack communities to give space for illegal mining of mineral resources.

They soon found out that this newfound ‘job’ is very lucrative, even more lucrative than being paid mercenary fighters. This was what made them to refuse to return to the Sahel region where they came from. Their excuse was that those who imported them did not pay them their agreed dues and fees . Hence they stood on that excuse and stayed put on Nigeria’s soil till today, kidnapping, killing, maiming, terrorizing and committing all sorts of atrocities, especially in the North. The unfortunate part of their action was that they have added to their numbers, gullible youths of the North, especially the Almajiris. Today, they remain one of Nigeria’s albatrosses.

The year 2031 is just 5 years away from now. But it is unfortunate that despite the fact that 2027 is dicey for an Igbo presidency, 2031 may elude them too. And the reasons are clearly written on the wall. Though it can be read by the wise and discerning. The government in place now does not favor or give hope to any Igbo presidency, even in 2031. And the waves across the country cannot guarantee an Igbo presidency now, even with the alliance with the Kwankwasiyya Movement whose influence may not exceed Kano and Kaduna, at best.

Right now, we have a vice president of Northern decent in the person of Kasheem Shettimah, a loyal deputy to sitting President Bola Tinubu who always commended Shettimah at every opportunity for his loyalty, devotion and commitment. As I’m writing this article, Shettimah is representing President Tinubu at the ongoing United Nations General Assembly UNGA in New York, United States. And I know he will deliver a powerful address there and represent Nigeria and Tinubu very well in his intermingling and interactions with other world leaders at the various sessions in the Assembly.

It will be worthy to note that these are tracks that Shettimah will reference in his updated curriculum vitae as records that qualify him for the presidency in 2031. And the North wii echo him. Shettimah is able to attract to himself and albeit the North, all these attributes because he is level headed, cautious and patient to follow his oga (Tinubu) from the back, as a loyal political “apprentice”. No wonder Tinubu returned him as his running mate for the 2027 presidential elections notwithstanding the furor generated by the Muslim/Muslim ticket critics who were treacherously gunning to dismember a water-tight winning team thereby giving room to Atiku to gain sway in the Northeast, a haven of electoral votes. Of course these critics know this secret but they want to sway sentiments of gullible Christians in the wrong direction. It is not that the critics of this Muslim/Muslim ticket love Christians to that extent. No! It is just an Ahitophelian plot to dabaru a winning team.
In the Bible 2nd Samuel 15 verse 31, King David, dislodged from his palace by rebels led by his son, Absalom, in a coup, heard that Absalom sought the counsel of Ahitophel, a man reputed to counsel kings and whose counselling never fail. David prayed in 2nd Samuel 15 verse 31 KJV “O Lord, I pray thee, turn the counsel of Ahitophel into foolishness” And God did exactly that! Thank God He turned the Ahitophelic counselling of the Arhbishop Onaiyekans to Tinubu on replacing Shettima with a Northern Christian without electoral value into foolishness. Tinubu/Shettima remain a winning ticket anyday, North/South.

Now, this Shettimah man is a sharp opposite of Atiku Abubakar, former vice president to Obasanjo. Unlike Shettimah, Atiku never had a cordial working relationship with his oga, Obasanjo throughout their 8-year tenure to the extent that years after Obasanjo left office what he had to say is that he regretted picking Atiku as his running mate in 1999. And Obasanjo demonstrated his resentment for Atiku by helping YarAdua to become president in 2007, instead of Atiku. Taking a cursory look at this brief chronicle of races to Nigeria’s presidency, a curious observer will see that the Yorubas of the southwest have always played major roles in the installation of presidents in this country. For even the North will find it difficult to ascend the presidency without the Yorubas.

Howbeit, the Igbo seem not to come to terms with this reality. How? They are not in good terms with the Yoruba, their Southern neighbor who incidentally happen to be powerful and influential powerbrokers. The Igbo, especially the Obidients, as they call themselves are always boorish, uncouth and insolent in their poor defenses of their “Messiah” Peter Gregory Obi who incidentally fails to call them to order even once in a while. And the unfortunate thing is that their arguments are always petty, foolish, baseless, without substance and ultimately empty, hollow, shallow and void. No wonder a public commentator tagged them “the headless mob”. Little wonder, they unanimously installed one of them, Nnamdi Kanu, a man with nothing to show in his entire life as their leader. He insisted on defending himself in court after sacking all his lawyers and charged at the Judge, barking at him that the Judge does not know law. But the Judge that doesn’t know law eventually commuted his supposed death sentence to life imprisonment which he hasn’t been able to appeal till date.

A few days ago, the governor of Anambra State, Professor Chukwuma Soludo tried to enlighten them on the need for Ndigbo to come together this time around and decide aright to vote sensibly in next year’s presidential elections by voting the sitting president as they have always been doing since ages past. But because Tinubu, a Yoruba man, is the sitting president, Soludo’s pleas to them to vote Tinubu so as to get into mainstream politics and have mouth to fend their right to Federal infrastructures and stop crying “maginalization” all the time. Because, according to Soludo, a vote for Obi is a waste because even if Obi scores 101% in the whole of the Southeast, according to Soludo, Obi can still not be president because a sectional leader cannot win with the right geographical spread as spelt out in the constitution. Soludo went further to advise them to vote Tinubu for president and APGA, their local, indigenous, native party for other positions, but in their typical characteristic manner, they have been calling Soludo several funny and unprintable names.

None of their political wisemen and women could tame them no matter how hard they try. That is the mindset of the Igbo as I write. In spite of the fact that the Yorubas are the tribe that welcome and accommodate them the most in Nigeria, especially in Lagos, they still see the Yoruba as their arch-enemy. Now, this mindset cannot win the Igbo the presidency. It can only inadvertently return power to the North. And the beer of that scenery is brewing now.

Currently, Atiku, a Northerner, is not even thinking for once that it is the Igbo’s turn. He is busy with his campaigns. That probably might have caused the parting of ways politically with Obi who went to NDC leaving Atiku in ADC. And I know that if he loses, he will still contest in 2031. But unfortunately for him, Tinubu will still be on seat to support whoever he chooses to succeed him. And surely, it cannot be Atiku, neither can it be Obi. Atiku would be 85 by then, sleepy, slow and tired. But Shettimah would be properly positioned to take the batton from his oga, Tinubu and continue the race.

• Sola Ogunbanjo is a veteran Nigerian journalist, political commentator and cleric.
He can be reached on 08033595082. He writes from Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria.